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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2018-09-27T04:54:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2018-09-27T04:54Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/14205/-1
CME Note: The source is a filament eruption seen in SDO AIA 304 around 09-27T04:00Z around S40E10. CME is very faint and difficult to measure. Start time may not be accurate. Some small disturbances were seen in the SW data, but nothing clear to determine the arrival of the CME.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-10-02T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/14208/1
Model Inputs:
2018-09-27T04:54:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-10.0, Lat.=-4.0, Speed=212.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2018-09-27T18:40Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2018-10-02T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2018-10-01T02:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180927_184000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180927_184000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180927_184000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180927_184000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180927_184000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180927_184000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180927_184000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180927_184000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180927_184000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180927_184000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180927_184000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180927_184000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180927_184000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180927_184000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180927_184000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20180927_184000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 81.43 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Rachel Broemmelsiek (GSFC) on 2018-09-28T20:34Z

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